Portland Timbers-San Jose Earthquakes Preview (5/23/26)
The Portland Timbers knew that they were going to run a gauntlet before the MLS season took a pause before the World Cup. Several known quantities (Vancouver, LAFC, Miami) littered their schedule before the break, with many predicting that Portland would have some rough sailing during this portion of the season. However, that preseason strength of schedule rating (perceived to be the hardest in the league prior to the season opener) could not account for potential surprise packages. The 2026 San Jose Earthquakes are the biggest revelation in MLS this year. And in the final game before the World Cup break, they’re traveling to Providence Park with one thing in mind: breaking a 15-year-old streak.
The Earthquakes Report
When Preston Judd knocked in a late equalizer as the 10-man Earthquakes salvaged a deserved draw on June 13th, 2025, it foretold a fall from grace for the Portland Timbers. San Jose used that priceless goal (gifted to them by a usually sure-handed James Pantemis dropping a cross into Judd’s path) to climb into 7th place in the West. Portland kept their spot in the top 4, but would soon spiral; losing 3 of their next 4 games.
The Earthquakes would only win 5 of their final 16 MLS games in 2025; causing them to drop out of the playoff spots entirely as they settled into 10th place. They tied 9th-placed RSL on points, but had one fewer victory (wins are the first tiebreaker in MLS instead of goal differential).
However, the season was largely seen as successful. New head coach Bruce Arena (who took over prior to the season without a single explanation as to why he got dismissed from New England in 2023) doubled the Earthquakes’ points total from 2024 (21 to 41) in the span of one season. That revival was accomplished due to 27 combined league goals from new signings Josef Martinez and Chicho Arango. This high-flying attack made DP winger Amahl Pellegrino expendable in the summer, and the Norwegian goal machine was traded to San Diego (where he continued to dominate the Timbers). But this San Jose attack, who scored 60 goals in MLS games, had to do all that heavy lifting to compensate for the Western Conference’s 3rd-worst defense (in terms of goals allowed).
The Earthquakes finished 2025 with a -3 goal differential, and the underlying numbers indicated that they should have easily been a playoff team. (The Timbers, for what it’s worth, had an expected points total of 38, which was good enough for 14th in the West in the xG table). Underperformances from San Jose and St. Louis allowed the Timbers to get into the playoffs. But Arena was up to his old tricks, and Year 2 began with a clear goal in mind: fix the defense.
How does one fix a defense that has struggled for so many seasons? The answer is a complete philosophical change and personnel moves to match. Martinez and Arango, the goalscoring heroes, both left the club in the offseason. The Venezuelan legend had his contract option declined while Arango was sent on loan to Atletico Nacional in Colombia (and became teammates with Dairon Asprilla). Fixture defenders like Rodrigues, Bruno Wilson, and Nick Lima also left the club. But the biggest move of all occurred when general manager Chris Leitch declined to pick up the contract option for winger Cristian Espinoza.
Leitch would lose his job in November. Espinoza, meanwhile, went from being under club control to entering free agency. The Quakes desperately tried to get him back, but the 99th-percentile chance creator chose to sign with Nashville instead (with the Timbers taking home a 2nd-place trophy in the Espinoza sweepstakes). Their 3-headed attacking monster was gone, but there was a ton of flexibility available in the roster. Arango occupied a DP slot, Pellegrino’s departure vacated a DP slot, and the loan of attacking midfielder Hernan Lopez back in the summer opened up a 3rd DP slot. Homegrown attacking midfielder Niko Tsakiris was the only U22 Initiative player on the roster. With plenty of room at the top of the roster, San Jose was poised to fill some of those holes prior to the start of the season.
Only one of the DP slots was occupied when the season kicked off on February 21st. But the acquisition of RB Leipzig forward Timo Werner was widely seen as a coup for the Earthquakes. Despite being out of form for the past four European seasons (when the German forward tallied 5g/7a across 58 appearances between Leipzig and Tottenham) Werner was only 29, and his pedigree as a member of Die Mannschaft caused some to believe that there would be enough gas left in the tank for him to make a huge impact. But the squad still looked weak, and the questions of “Where do the goals come from?” paired the ever-present query of “Is the defense actually fixed?” in an offseason where the Quakes lost 3 key contributors in the attack and failed to bring in a single defender prior to the season opener.
However, Bruce Arena is 74 years old, and he’s been around a long time. This level of longevity for a manager is pretty rare, especially considering that he could easily be retired and playing with his grandkids. But Arena was put onto this Earth for one reason: to coach soccer. And as he approaches his Diamond Birthday, Arena is up to his old tricks.
San Jose (9-2-3, 29 points, 2W/3S) began the season with 4 wins in their first 5 games. That included victories against SKC, Atlanta, in Philadelphia, and in Vancouver. The only loss was a fluky 1-0 home defeat to Seattle where the Earthquakes dominated but couldn’t put the ball in the net (they can’t keep getting away with it). They followed that Vancouver win (which was directly after the Seattle loss) with five more league victories (San Diego home, SKC away, LAFC away, Austin home, and St. Louis away). Through 10 games, the Quakes were 9-0-1; the best start to a season in MLS history. They were also competing on multiple fronts with a couple midweek Open Cup games. After defeating Phoenix 2-0 on April 15th, they faced Minnesota on April 28th.
This Minnesota game is the hinge point of their season so far. They were 10-0-1 across all competitions and held the lead in the Supporters’ Shield entering that Open Cup Round of 16 fixture. Despite winning 4-2, Werner got injured and was substituted in the 34th minute. Their lone DP hasn’t played since. Then they went to Toronto and drew 1-1 but suffered another critical injury. Tsakiris, who firmly took hold of the starting number 10 job, injured his groin and underwent surgery expected to keep him out for 3-4 months. Since that Minnesota game, the Earthquakes haven’t tasted victory.
How could a team that started so hot fail to keep that momentum going? There are a couple of factors at play. Werner and Tsakiris’ absences definitely play a part (chiefly Tsakiris, who was averaging 3.4 key passes per game). But I’d like to take a brief look at how San Jose’s rise to prominence has been achieved to find the more important answer: the fixed defense.
The 2026 version of San Jose defends aggressively from the front. With a cadre of younger players with high engines and an ability to accurately perform the roles that Arena expects them to, the Earthquakes swarmed their opponents with a suffocating high press tailored to win the ball high and immediately capitalize. Fast defenders like Daniel Munie, Benji Kikanovic, and Reid Roberts could sweep up underneath with brick-wall goalkeeper Daniel behind them as a last resort. But that style requires a lot of running, and a team lacking significant quality in depth is bound to hit a wall at some point. Since that 1-1 draw in Toronto, the Earthquakes are 0-1-3 with a -4 goal differential across all competitions. In order: they drew against Vancouver, lost in Seattle, lost at home to Dallas, and lost in the Open Cup Quarterfinals on Wednesday in Colorado. They’re trying to use up all of their gas ahead of the World Cup break, but their recent stumbles present a tired opponent. Do they have enough left in the tank to snap this poor run of form against the Timbers tomorrow?
SJ Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
San Jose’s injury list doesn’t feature any surprises.
This is the same lineup that started the midweek Open Cup game in Colorado. None of these players are expected to go to the World Cup, so it makes sense that Arena will try to run it back with this starting group in the final game before the break. Daniel has paid his dues with terrible defenses in front of him and finally gets a starting group worthy of one of the best goalkeepers in the league. Kikanovic is a converted striker who has found a high-energy role at right back. Munie and Roberts form a stellar partnership, with each possessing the recovery speed to nullify fast breaks. Ricketts is equally fast, but has become a provider in the attacking end with his superb crossing. Harkes and Vieira form a solid pairing in the double pivot, with Harkes acting as the roaming destroyer alongside Vieira’s settled presence. Leroux isn’t a natural 10, but he can really hit a shot from distance. Marie is a converted fullback who shines in front-foot defending, especially farther up the pitch. Bouda has been a revelation, and he likes to tear the Timbers apart. Judd acts as the focal point in the press and utilizes clever movement to find pockets in the box to score tap-ins. Every single role in this team is fleshed out with players who fully understand what job they’re supposed to do. Even without star power, they’re a collective monster.
The Timbers Report
After leaving no doubts about his expectations for last week’s cross-country voyage, Phil Neville’s quest for a 9-point week was thwarted when the Timbers drew 2-2 in Montreal and lost 2-0 in Miami. But that week began with a home game, and the Portland Timbers (4-2-7, 14 points, 12W/21S) dispatched SKC 6-0 to start their busy 8 days on the right track.
The rest of the week did not go according to plan in terms of the results. Montreal was winnable, and so was Miami. But the Timbers continued to remain hopeless on the road. With 8 of their 14 matches before the World Cup taking place away from Providence Park, it makes sense that they’ll enter the break with a putrid 1-1-6 road record. But, at the very least, they’ve been able to take care of business at Providence Park.
3-1-1 isn’t a glittering home record, and their goal differential has been inflated by the margin of defeat they inflicted on (at the time) hapless SKC. Their early season struggles have been magnified by their inability to find positive results in road games. The schedule did them absolutely no favors in that regard. But their midseason finale will take place at Providence Park, and they cannot afford to draw or lose. Given SJ’s poor form, injury crisis, and heavy workload, only a win is acceptable.
Raising Some Eyebrows
This week has been focused on recovery, especially after the miles logged between trips to Montreal and Miami with a short turnaround. However, sometimes a struggling team isn’t able to keep their thoughts from spilling out onto the Internet.
I don’t think there’s anything too serious behind this post. Honestly, it’s pretty expected. Mora has lost his starting spot to Kevin Kelsy and his contract expires at the end of the season. There’s a possibility of him returning to Chile in the summer similar to Dairon Asprilla’s exit in 2024, but that’s hypothetical. At the very least, it doesn’t seem likely that he’s going to sign a contract extension. None of that should be surprising.
However, our next intriguing post should come with a string of red flags attached.
If I had noticed this after the Miami game, I would have written about it. Based on this timestamp (adjusted for the time zone difference) it appears that it was sent in the locker room after the final whistle in Miami.
However, I want to make one thing perfectly clear: none of what I’m about to say next is in any way motivated by Antony’s unprofessional and child-like response to me personally. Both of us are entitled to our own opinions. However, if you go to this account on Twitter (it is absolutely him) you’ll see that the last two things that he tweeted are direct responses to reporters.
This reply to Adam Susman didn’t raise too many red flags initially, but some warning signs were definitely present. If Cristian Espinoza did sign for the Timbers, it would have unquestionably pushed Antony to the bench. I’m sure that Antony would have provided some fierce competition in this hypothetical scenario, but recent events might beg to differ.
During a Tuesday training session prior to the LAFC game, Antony left the training pitch in a huff and had to be calmed down in the boot room by Ned Grabavoy. He started the following weekend, and was largely ineffective. He then proceeded to start 4 out of the following 6 games, only making substitute appearances in San Diego and Montreal. For a player that hasn’t recorded a goal involvement since the Galaxy game, and has only 5 total goal involvements since the Club America game last August (when he returned from a hamstring injury), his seemingly guaranteed starting spot has been called into question. That’s what’s supposed to happen when a team is struggling to score goals and one of their supposed starters has been seriously underperforming.
Neville’s recent comments about players needing to “drop their egos” could easily point towards Antony. However, sources within the team have informed me that nothing about his behavior has seemed abnormal. Maybe he just has bad Twitter fingers. I’m certainly guilty of that at times. But this latest interaction (that I didn’t notice until days after the fact) is far more egregious than the previous reply to Susman.
Both of Antony’s backups on the left wing have been outperforming him in recent weeks. Yet his starting spot remains firmly secured on the teamsheet, while players like Ariel Lassiter (who have actually produced goals and assists recently) struggle to get minutes. I asked Neville about this on Thursday. Previously, I’ve danced around asking Neville about Antony directly. I usually try to phrase it in terms of the “left wing competition” to give Neville a chance to talk about Lassiter or Alexander Aravena. But now the spotlight is firmly on the temperamental Brazilian, who has the same amount of immature Twitter replies to reporters as goal involvements in 2026.
“I think he hasn’t played to his level. I think that’s pretty fair. I always think that with young players you’ve got to trust them, you’ve got to believe in them.”
I categorically reject Antony being labeled as a “young player” at this point in his Timbers tenure. He’s 24 years old and is one of only SIX players remaining from the 2023 team; otherwise known as the last year of Giovanni Savarese’s tenure. Antony was literally on the trip to Houston that ended with Savarese’s sacking. Using a widely recognized timeline of player status by age, Antony will enter his peak years in September when he turns 25. Some might argue that he’s already in his peak years because the timeline for a forward/winger is different than a center back or a goalkeeper. In terms of longest tenured players, only Diego Chara, Felipe Mora, Zac McGraw, Juan Mosquera, and Eric Miller have been on the team longer than Antony. He’s effectively a veteran at this point, with almost three full years and 92 games in Portland under his belt. Enough with the “young player” excuse, especially for Antony.
“I think when you’re putting down on paper the best XI, Antony would probably be in 99% of people’s starting XI if he was bang-in form.”
But he’s not. And he hasn’t been in "bang-in form" since he injured his hamstring last year against (coincidentally) San Jose.
“I think he gives us something that he hasn’t got, that incredible speed, that ability to go from box to box in a quick way, like that goal against Columbus in the first game of the season. I think when you’re talking about a group of players that need to improve, I think he’s part of a group of players that need to improve. When you look at the final third bit, we’ve missed his goals. I think, like the rest of us, we’ve got some improvements to make and he’s part of those improvements but we have incredible trust and faith in him. I think when you have young talent, young people…I think Kevin Kelsy’s a prime example of…there’s probably people inside this building, outside this building that probably thought that he wasn’t at the level, or he wasn’t going to be the number 9. And when I said a month ago about ‘grabbing the shirt,’ he’s grabbed the shirt. He looks like a proper number 9. And I think if you have a manager that just goes up and down in terms of their thoughts on people then you’re not going to have young players coming through and producing performances like we’ve seen over the last few years. I believe in this set of players. I believe in the younger players that we’ve got. And with the younger players that we’ve got comes the ups and downs. And I don’t lose faith or trust in them.”
Choosing to invoke Kelsy while being asked about Antony sends a subliminal message in itself, particularly after Neville repeatedly talked about Kelsy’s so-called “maturity” problems throughout the Venezuelan’s short tenure in Portland. Some of the things that Neville mentioned in the first part of his response (notably Antony’s box-to-box speed) haven't been visible in recent weeks. He’s been reduced to something close to a lolly-gagger due to not tracking back and being a liability with the ball at his feet.
Antony’s contract expires at the end of 2026 with a club option for 2027. This is a big year for him, and he’s spent it getting mad online and barely making an impact on the pitch. I do have further thoughts on this situation, but I’ll keep them holstered for the World Cup break. For a brief spoiler: I’m extremely worried about the front office’s ability to sell players at the best possible time for the player and the club. More on that at a later time.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Ortiz will definitely start with Caicedo and Chara unavailable. Based on his recent performances, I don’t have a problem with that. He was good in the second half against Miami and has played his best ball this year. I’m here to remind you that this projection is based on what the coaching staff will do instead of my own personal preferences. If it was up to me, Lassiter would be starting on the left wing. But after zero minutes in either of the East Coast games, I think he’s only going to be used as a substitute. What a shame. Miller left the Miami game early with a slight knock, but he trained in full on Thursday and should be good to go. Neville warned that “we won’t see the best of Juan Mosquera until after the international break” on Thursday, so it’s Bye time at right back again. Surman will get a hero’s sendoff as he gets in the squad for the final game before the World Cup.
I would like to reiterate that I’m fully expecting an Antony start. And he will have the most to prove in this starting XI. It’s the last game before the break, and the Timbers will be desperate to end a terrible start to 2026 on a high note.
Tactical Preview
Passivity vs. Aggression
Portland’s offensive system is built around giving the Timbers control through ball possession. In theory, this sounds like a good idea, but it’s extremely passive in practice. I’ve criticized the Timbers for taking multiple passes to complete one action. However, such a strategy can be useful if accompanying movement is utilized to draw defenders out of position. Portland does not do this, so they spend plenty of time knocking the ball around without any danger actually being created. At times, it also looks clueless because many turnovers occur because of misunderstandings. Passes go to where players think the receiver should be, the ball doesn’t move quick enough and allows defenders to jump the passing lane, and other errors in that category turn Portland’s already fragile connectivity into a literal minefield of danger for themselves.
Arena has to be licking his chops when he watches Portland possess the ball. San Jose is built to swarm and harass Portland’s passivity on the ball. The Timbers will turn the ball over in their own half during this game. That’s a certainty. This game will be decided based on how quickly the Timbers can recover from these turnovers. The Quakes aren’t going to give Portland any time on the ball like they had in Miami or against SKC. Expect pressure, respond to the pressure, and get the ball out of the defensive third as quickly as possible. Although the Earthquakes are likely going to be exhausted, they have the advantage in this area of the pitch. Ignoring that fact would be naive. I would suggest abandoning any ideas to play out from the back, but that’s not the identity that this team has developed. Be prepared for the pressure, always offer a quick passing option for a teammate, and get the ball away from danger as soon as possible.
Da Costa’s Role
Portuguese Dave could be one of those options to facilitate ball progression. In fact, it might be the role that he’s best suited for in this upcoming game. I do expect him to be getting touches all over the middle third.
But what does that mean for his “primary” duty as the main creative force around the box? I think that role is better left to Velde in this game so Da Costa can focus on getting the ball out of Portland’s half. Portuguese Dave can still affect play around the box, but he’s more of a ball-mover than chance creator this season. Is tomorrow the time for him to finally take a game by the horns and use his dazzling technical ability to create scoring opportunities? It would be really cool if he did. But it’s not an expectation.
Matchday Info
Broadcast Bulletin
English: Mark Rogondino & Heath Pearce
Spanish: Diego Pessolano & Daniel Chapela
Home Radio Broadcast from 105.1 The Fan: available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: Apple TV
Kickoff time: 6:30 PM PST
Yes, tomorrow’s game kicks off at 6:30 PM local time. Apple decided to use this game as the final “Walmart Saturday Showdown” before the World Cup. I like the earlier kickoff, but it also means that a fair amount of eyes will be on this game in particular. Is that actually true though? Who knows how many people are tuning into Apple TV just to watch the heavily marketed game on Saturday night that occurs in the middle of a crowded window of MLS games? It isn’t even a standalone! Thankfully, the World Cup break will give me plenty of time to delve into Apple TV as a whole. I can’t wait.
Referee Report
Timothy Ford’s 2026 stats: 7 games, 26.57 fouls/game, 0.29 penalties/game, 3.86 yellows/game, 0.29 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: June 29, 2024 vs MIN 3-2 W
Ford has earned quite a reputation around the league. Let’s start with the last Timbers game he refereed. Minnesota was at the dawn of their pure “Brute-Ball” era which featured tons of physical challenges and blatant time-wasting. This game, commonly referred to as “Dairon Asprilla’s Farewell,” didn’t have a single yellow card. But Ford got the majority of big decisions correct, most notably a correct offside call on a potential Antony winner and a penalty kick in Portland’s favor.
However, Portland’s foreign neighbors have a lot more to say about Ford. He was the center official during Game 3 of Vancouver’s first round series against LAFC in 2023, which featured a dubious penalty call in LAFC’s favor and a bizarre sequence towards the end. A Vancouver corner kick was cleared, and Ford ran into midfielder Alessandro Schopf while LAFC was counterattacking. This caused Schopf to fall to the ground, but play continued. LAFC scored, but the goal was called back for offside.
Vanni Sartini flew into a frenzy as a result, and was red-carded for dissent. After the game, he remarked, “If they found [Ford] at the bottom of False Creek then I’m going to be a suspect. I’m not saying I would do it, I’m saying I’m the first suspect.”
That hilarious joke earned Sartini an additional five-game suspension on top of his red card suspension at the start of 2024. In 2025, Ford’s run-ins with the Whitecaps continued after a controversial penalty call and an early second yellow to Edier Ocampo in their game in San Jose. PRO would say after the game that it was a bad call, but that did little to quell the furor in British Columbia. Whitecaps fans found Instagram photos of Ford’s wife in LAFC gear, which reignited their anger over the 2023 playoff game. Do you believe that a referee could have bias towards one team if his significant other might have favoritism for a certain MLS team? I can’t say for sure. I do not encourage the actions of Sartini or Vancouver fans in those instances, but I think their reactions to some very bad calls speaks for itself.
Series History
Historical record: 20-12-7, +19 goal differential
Home record: 15-6-0. +25 goal differential
Current streak: 3 winless
Current home streak: TWENTY-ONE UNBEATEN
For some context: the only Western Conference opponent that the Timbers have never beaten on the road is Minnesota. That’s NINE YEARS without a single win in the North Star State. That record by itself is hideous, but imagine adding SIX MORE YEARS on top of it. It might be the most embarrassing streak in the league. And the Quakes are desperate to end it.
Table Time
Portland will enter the World Cup break below the playoff line, regardless of the result tomorrow. That’s the only aspect of the table that truly matters. There is a scenario where they drop to 13th, saved from the basement of the conference because Austin and St. Louis play each other and SKC’s goal differential is in the negative double digits. All 6 of those goals against the Wizards are actually pretty important right now, but not in a positive sense.
Final Whistle
The prior 13 games have all stunk.
That might seem like an overreaction. I get it. But in terms of expectations, the Portland Timbers have only been able to tally 1 convincing win in 13 games. Their three other wins were courtesy of late winners, and the rest of those matches have featured humiliating losses, gritty draws, or boring losses. With a seemingly fully healthy squad available since the 2-1 win against LAFC, player availability hasn’t been an excuse for the dreadful product on the field. The Timbers need to win their home games, and tomorrow is as good of a time as any to do so.
Since Ned Grabavoy informed reporters (and, therefore, the public) that the club would “reassess” at the World Cup break, the Timbers have gone 3-1-3. 10 points from 21 available, if you want to look at it that way. But looking at results is only one piece of the puzzle. Are the performances good enough? What constitutes a good performance in Grabavoy’s eyes? Is the reassessment only focused on the coaching staff, especially the manager who hasn’t been shy in letting the public know exactly how much time is left on his contract?
Tomorrow’s game will set the tone for the World Cup break, and therefore the rest of the season. It will be the final taste in Timbers fans’ mouths as they prepare to watch Finn Surman take on Iran, Egypt, and Belgium on the world’s biggest stage. For reference, the Timbers tend to lay an egg under Neville’s stewardship before a long pause. 2024 brought the 5-0 humiliation at the hands of the Vancouver Whitecaps, while 2025 gifted the viewing audience with a 4-0 humiliation in San Diego. They have to prove to everybody that they will not put up with being a laughingstock anymore.
Even some laughingstocks like Philadelphia garner national attention because of their previous exploits and rapid falls from grace. Portland’s decline has been a death by a thousand paper cuts, with each passing season from the 2021 MLS Cup run featuring a different form of catastrophe. 2022 was a mediocre team that was overshadowed by the fallout from the Paul Riley and Andy Polo scandals, 2023 saw a beloved head coach crash and burn in Houston, 2024 featured record offensive exploits only to end in the biggest meltdown in club history, and 2025 started hot but ended with a gradual decline that finished with another humiliation by an expansion club.
2026 has been the Year of Apathy so far. Marginal on-field improvements have to be pointed at as signs of (minimal) growth, while the Timbers are most likely to show up to a game and lose 2-0. Above all else, tomorrow’s game presents an opportunity to get people to care again. They’ll serenade Surman as he gets ready for his inevitable World Cup breakout, but they are nowhere near satisfied with the current state of the team. Even the SKC win looks like fool’s gold.
Their chance for a final impression is here. And they’ll have to defend their home turf against a team that has never tasted victory at Providence Park. In Year 100 of the great cathedral’s existence, a San Jose victory simply cannot happen. Protect the home field, or die trying. The climb continues.
-By Jeremy Peterman
